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Monthly PMG Statistics Analysis 每月PMG数据分析 (19 Mar to 16 Apr 2019)

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Following the price stagnation of the 4th series CNY, its growth has been moderated in recent months. For March to April, the growth rate was just shy of 3%, but that still translate to over 16,000 of new graded PMG notes, of which more than half were for P885bf (King of Fluorescence 荧光之王). Currency dealers inflated this note's rarity in the early days and, because it was the first fluorescent 4th series CNY notes to be officially recognized by PMG with a unique pick number, sales were brisk. Now, with market flooded, its value has plummeted and will unlikely see any pickup in the near future.

Interestingly, the usually quiet 1st series CNY notes saw quite a jump this month, with over 1,000 newly graded notes. Of these, there are quite a few new top grades. Namely, CHN810a2's top grade improved from PMG58 to PMG64 as one single note was bestowed that grade this month. Same for CHN810a1 and CHN 826a, for which the new top grades are PMG66 vs. previous top grade of PMG65. The mos…

Short FY2018 PMG Statistical Analysis for CNY 1st to 4th Series and SG Orchid Series

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CNY series grew annually by between 31% and 149%. As expected, the 1st and 2nd series saw the smallest growth at about 30%, followed by the 3rd series at about 50%, and then the 4th series by about 150%Growth in the 1st and 2nd series are expected to decline as the populations of grading-worthy notes decline.3rd series growth will likely maintain in the coming years as the population of grading-worthy notes in the dealers' hands is still very substantial. 2018 was the year of the 4th series, and these dealers were busy creaming all that they could, but when that subsides, signs of which are now observed, they will start to peddle 3rd series notes aggressively again.4th series grew 149%, which may seem significant but is actually small compared to its ungraded notes population. There was noticeable and deliberate slowdown in 4th series notes grading after the dealers exhausted market's tolerance for minute differentiations of note pedigree by fluorescent effect. Market is now p…

Analysis of 2106-B* 1934D $50 New York Clark | Snyder

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This 2016-B* note with serial number B00162481*, graded PMG66EPQ, is an interesting one. It was offered at the just concluded Heritage FUN auction and sold for a princely $5,040 over 8 bids. Pretty healthy, and probably worth the price considering that there are just 15 graded notes, and this being the highest grade across PMG and PCGS (see Figure 2 below), the next highest being a PMG58EPQ. Plus, the sole ungraded note that crossed Heritage is too flawed to challenge this grade.
Except that there is a twist: this note was auctioned by Heritage three other times prior to its most recent sale, and in those times the note resided in a PCGS55PPQ holder, not the current PMG6EPQ one! It sold for $1,495 on 1 bid in 2008, then for $1,089 on 3 bids in 2017, and finally for just $750 on 1 bid in 2018. The catalogue comments from Heritage in these years were: 2008: A lovely example of this very rare star, which may well be the nicest specimen we've ever seen for sale in this series from the N…

Analysis of 2156-G* 1934D $100 Chicago Clark | Snyder

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So I got interested in the US small-size federal reserve dollars recently and have been tracking some of the prices on Heritage Auctions.
In the recently concluded FUN Currency Signature Auction, one unsold item caught my eyes, a 2156-G* 1934D $100 Chicago Clark | Snyder graded PCGS40PPQ
This is a pretty rare star note with combined graded PMG + PCGS population of just 12, 3 of which are either Net or Apparent. That leaves just 8 unblemished notes, of which only this one has the EPQ/PPQ designation. This single star note with premium paper quality was estimated to sell between $2,500 and $3,500 but it went unsold!
So I did a little research on the sales history of the 2156-G* on Heritage Auction with some interesting findings.
First up, the top grade is a PMG55 with no EPQ, and it is Net for Minor Restoration. So it is not very desirable, and if we look at its sales history, the note seemed to have gone through a tulip bubble in the mid-2000s when, as an ungraded Choice Crisp Uncirculated…

浅谈2018人民币发行70周年纪念币 Short Note on 2018 Commemorative Note for RMB 70th Anniversary

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中国人民银行于2018年12月推出了人民币发行70周年纪念币。单张的总发行量为1.2亿张,为历来纪念币发行量里的榜眼。首批的PMG评级币在2019年一月上市,叫价偏高,藏家不宜入市。

借鉴于早前的纪念币,其发行量与市价(PMG67;赵涌)的反向关系显而易见。以奥运币为基准,对比发行量与对比市价的反向关系大约一致。例如千禧币的发行量是奥运币的1.7倍,而奥运币的市价是千禧币的1.9倍。这反向关系符合量多而价贱的基本经济原则。再例,建国币发行量是奥运币的8.3倍,价格却不到其十分之一。值得一提的是航天币,发行量为50倍,而奥运币的市价却只是其22倍。乍看之下,航空币的相对性价比甚卓,其实不然。此现象主要是航天币的市价已触地板,即其裸币加上评级的价格,约莫30美金左右。

此次的70周年币发行量甚多,主题不鲜明,设计也较为逊色,市场的长期平衡价恐怕只能在地板价间周旋。当然,象狮子8这样的特例还是会卖个好价。

1月19号续:eBay于14号拍了一枚PMG67的,价格为46美金,可见市场对70周年纪念币还是比较理性,也比较冷感的。这周赵涌已涌现多枚PMG66至PMG69的拍卖品,其拍卖价可见真章。

The People Bank' of China released the latest commemorative Chinese Yuan to mark the 70th anniversary of Renminbi's issuance in December 2018. The total issuance size for single note is 120million, the second largest of all Chinese commemorative notes. The first batches of PMG graded notes have just entered the market in January 2019, but the asking prices are relatively high, and collectors should wait for market to adjust before entering.

Using data of issuance sizes and current marke…

PMG Blunders on Chinese Yuan Grading

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Grading firms make mistakes. It is inevitable considering the profundity of currency diversity, each calling for yearslong of serious studies and constant revision as markets discover new facts. As collectors who pay a premium for the grading firms' services, we reasonably expect a certain level of competency in their ability to authenticate, classify and grade. The odd mistakes are fine, but where do collectors draw the line how frequent is too much to bear? And should we impose these grading firms the onus to self-declare their error rate? After all, these firms, if they are in for the long run, should have a database of their graded notes, and can identify those wrongly attributed as new information flows into the market. This seems like a tall order now, but it is something that collectors need to ponder over for the long run. Numismatic collection is a long-term hobby and serious numismatists must consider which grading firms are willing to make strategic investments to impro…

Abysmal Results for Singapore Banknotes at Recent Mavin's Auction

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Singapore banknotes continued to perform badly in the just-concluded Mavin's Session 1. 
Mavin's is the official auctioneer for the Monetary Authority of Singapore and, in its 3 auctions every year, always carry special prefix or serial number notes auctioned for charitable cause. These for-charity notes tend to do very well.
But the rest of the Singapore notes continued to be poorly received. In this auction, all 4 series of Singapore notes are well represented, with a good proportion with fancy serial numbers. Of the 142 lots on offer this time, only 29 received bids. In other words, only 2 of every 8 items received bids, and these tend to be single bids, while the remaining 8 were passed.
Such poor results are not specific to Mavin's. The other two auctioneers also register similar results. The systemic weakness is symptomatic of an inflated Singapore numismatic market that needs correction. The bull run in the 2000s meant that a lot of dealers are holding onto inventory a…